North African countries must seize the green shipping opportunity, starting with the IMO Net-Zero Framework

We have just published a new policy brief on North Africa's potential to become a major green fuel bunkering hub and supplier as the maritime sector seeks ways to transition to clean fuels. The timing could not be more urgent. The price of heavy fuel oil which most ships still rely on, has surged dramatically in recent weeks due to the crisis in the Middle East. Once again, it exposes just how vulnerable the world remains to fossil fuel price shocks. The good news is that the International Maritime Organisation reconvenes this month to consider how to change that. Member States will decide how to move forward on the Net-Zero Framework, a legally binding measure targeting net-zero emissions from shipping by 2050 that was delayed by a year last October. If adopted, it would generate 11-12 billion USD annually through a net-zero fund to incentivise the switch to green fuels like ammonia, methanol or e-LNG and begin to break the sector’s dependence on fossil fuels once and for all.

North Africa could be at the heart of that new green shipping fuel transition. Egypt and Morocco sit at two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Gibraltar, through which  more than 12% of global trade flows. Their renewable energy costs are among the lowest in the world, with solar electricity in Egypt priced as low as 2 cents per kWh. Both countries are already Africa's largest fertiliser producers and deeply familiar with ammonia handling at ports. Scaling up green ammonia production could simultaneously decarbonise their domestic fertiliser industries, supply Europe's growing clean ammonia demand, and turn North African ports into green bunkering hubs for vessels moving between Asia and Europe.

Our analysis of the IEA database identified 74 projects across the region, with 47 of them at or near ports. But almost 80% remain at the concept stage and financing is the critical bottleneck. The NZF would help break that deadlock by sending a strong demand signal and providing the regulatory certainty the industry needs to move. New modelling published yesterday by UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group and RMI reinforces the point: only the NZF combining a carbon price, a capped surplus unit market and a reward mechanism for zero and near-zero fuels creates the conditions for an investable transition.

The foundations are already there. East Port Said hosted the first green methanol bunkering operation in Africa and the Middle East, supplying a Maersk container ship. The Suez Canal Authority is incentivising green infrastructure. Morocco's Green Hydrogen Offer provides a framework for the value chain, and the estimates that green hydrogen-based fuels could be bunkered at Tanger Med for a cost-effective configuration. What is missing is the demand signal and revenue certainty that only a global IMO NZF can provide.

The right choice for governments in MENA like Egypt and Morocco is clear: support the IMO Net Zero Framework.

Krystyna Serdiuk,

Communications Associate, GH2

Flore Schmerber,

Policy and Research Associate, GH2